The recent Bangladesh general elections have seen the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) declare victory, with Tarique Rahman poised to assume the role of Prime Minister. This political transition follows the August 2024 ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and an 18-month interim government. India’s decision to grant refuge to Hasina has already strained bilateral relations, with BNP officials alleging India’s complicity in her administration’s actions and warning against ties with a country perceived as destabilizing Bangladesh.
Despite strong rhetoric from some BNP factions, Rahman has indicated a more calibrated foreign policy approach, aiming for friendly relations with all nations while safeguarding Bangladesh’s national interests. However, diplomatic strains have been evident, even spilling into sports. A Bangladeshi cricketer was dropped from an Indian Premier League team amidst protests, prompting Dhaka to ban IPL broadcasts and request the relocation of its Cricket World Cup matches from India—a request rejected by the ICC. Visa processes have also become more stringent for citizens of both countries.
Economically, bilateral trade remains robust, valued at approximately $13.5 billion annually, primarily driven by Indian exports. India’s Adani Power group has also increased electricity supply to Bangladesh. Nevertheless, several long-standing issues continue to challenge the relationship. The Farakka Water Treaty is up for renewal this year, reigniting water-sharing disputes. Bangladesh is advancing plans for a new Padma Barrage project downstream, a point Rahman highlighted during his campaign. Furthermore, the unresolved Teesta River water-sharing agreement and historical grievances contribute to public sentiment in Bangladesh, complicating New Delhi’s imperative to maintain stability with its key neighbor.